Planning and coping with deadlines in SCRUM

Posted by John on Stack Overflow See other posts from Stack Overflow or by John
Published on 2010-04-01T12:15:30Z Indexed on 2010/04/01 12:43 UTC
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From wikipedia:

During each “sprint”, typically a two to four week period (with the length being decided by the team), the team creates a potentially shippable product increment (for example, working and tested software). The set of features that go into a sprint come from the product “backlog,” which is a prioritized set of high level requirements of work to be done. Which backlog items go into the sprint is determined during the sprint planning meeting. During this meeting, the Product Owner informs the team of the items in the product backlog that he or she wants completed. The team then determines how much of this they can commit to complete during the next sprint. During a sprint, no one is allowed to change the sprint backlog, which means that the requirements are frozen for that sprint. After a sprint is completed, the team demonstrates the use of the software.

I was reading this and two questions immediately popped into my head:

1)If a sprint is only a couple of weeks, decided in a single meeting, how can you accurately plan what can be achieved? High-level tasks can't be estimated accurately in my experience, and can easily double what seems reasonable. As a developer, I hate being pushed into committing what I can deliver in the next month based on a set of customer requirements, this goes against everything I know about generating reliable estimates rather than having to roughly estimate and then double it!

2)Since the requirements are supposed to be locked and a deliverable product available at the end, what happens when something does take twice as long? What if this feature is only 1/2 done at the end of the sprint?

The wiki article goes on to talk about Sprint planning, where things are broken down into much smaller tasks for estimation (<1 day) but this is after the Sprint features are already planned and the release agreed, isn't it? kind of like a salesman promising something without consulting the developers.

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