I'm hoping to get some advice here on the steps I should take to make a career change into professional web development.
I've been working in cancer research the last 14 years and I need a change.  The job market is terrible, the pay is worse, and despite what one would think the atmosphere is generally un-collegial, even in your own group.  Venture funding never returned after the dot com burst and with 3 to 5 wars our country is now in, NIH funding is only going to get worse.  I know things are not going to get better for my field, sadly, and I know I need to move on.
For probably just as long I have fiddled around with web development, I even run a fairly popular site with close to 1 million/month pageviews that pulls a decent income, but not stable enough to live off of right now.  My skills are ok for being self taught.  I enjoy the fast paced nature of the web and the tools the community creates and how eager people are to help and share knowledge; it's what science should be.
I have been trying to find an entry level developer job doing standard HTML/CSS/PHP/MySQL/JS/jQuery type work.  A good 50%+ of the jobs want someone with a CS degree, and most want 5 years experience.  Having no professional experience and no formal education, I know I'm at a huge disadvantage.  I am now considering my options on how to move forward professionally.  The way I see it I have basically 3 options.
Build up my portfolio of work as much as I can and continue to learn as much as I can on my own.  Try to contribute on some open source project when time allows.  Network like crazy and go to meetups.  Be confident and pray a lot in private.
OR While doing above, do some certification programs in PHP and Java, possibly others.  Get a Zend Certification.
OR Spend a few years getting a CS degree while doing 1.
I've already done the work fulltime go to school thing and it doesn't excite me one bit.  I didn't have the greatest college experience and am not too eager to return, but I have a family to feed.  Is the degree really necessary or is it more of a right of passage type thing in most instances?
I appreciate everyones input.  Thanks for taking the time to respond.